The historic 2018 midterm elections are over with a record 49.2% of the eligible voting population casting ballots in congressional and gubernatorial elections nationwide. PAA member Dr. William Frey’s analysis of who voted, shows that “race continues to represent a primary fault line in national elections.” He also finds that in 2018, there was a visible demographic shift in voting patterns based on age, gender, and education. In some key battleground races, substantial support for Democratic candidates came from white college educated female voters as compared to 2016. These shifts influenced the election outcome in numerous ways.
The Democrats now assume control of the U.S. House of Representatives with Republicans maintaining control of the U.S. Senate. A week after the election, there are 8 undeclared races in the House and two in the Senate, leaving the balance of control in the House of Representatives at 228 Democrats to 199 Republicans and, in the Senate, 47 Democrats to 51 Republicans. In the House, the Democrats “flipped” or turned over 36 seats, while the Republicans turned over three seats. In the Senate, the Republicans flipped three seats, while the Democrats turned over two.
Sheer numbers tell only part of the story. An unprecedented 118 women were elected to the House, surpassing the previous record of 107, and 11 eleven women won their Senate bids. The election outcomes also resulted in the most diverse Congress to date with the first female Muslim, Native American, and Palestinian-American members being elected.
Who lost, especially for those who follow science policy in the U.S. Congress, is almost as important as who won. Four members in the House of Representatives who have been active on pivotal science funding and oversight congressional committees lost their reelection bids. These members include Congressman John Culberson (R-TX) who chaired the Commerce, Science, and Justice Appropriations Subcommittee, which funds the Census Bureau and National Science Foundation, and Congresswoman Barbara Comstock (R-VA), who chaired the Research Subcommittee on the House Science Committee. In the Senate, Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) a former astronaut and Ranking Member of the Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, was trailing in his re-election bid and awaiting the outcome of an ongoing statewide recount.
Congress returned to work on November 13 for a post-election “lame duck” session to resolve unfinished business of the 115th Congress, including passage of seven Fiscal Year 2019 appropriations bills, outstanding nominations, and the Farm Bill. During this time, Democrats and Republicans will be holding leadership elections and, subsequently, determining future committee ratios and nominating new chairs and ranking members. PAA will keep its members apprised of these deliberations and their implications for agencies important to the population sciences as the results unfold.
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